One of the companies we follow inside the Eric Weiss Investor Network is launching Monday.
The company is called Predictor.
You can see it here: predictor.io
Predictor sits in a category I think is going to become increasingly important: prediction markets.
At a high level, prediction markets allow people to express a view on whether a specific event will happen. Politics, economics, sports, culture, business, technology, interest rates, inflation, elections, regulatory outcomes, and anything else that can be clearly resolved.
But the deeper point is this:
The stock market is already a prediction market.
Every day, investors are voting on the future. They are not just buying what exists now. They are buying what they think will happen next: future earnings, future demand, future interest rates, future inflation, future regulation, future fear, and future optimism.
The price is the prediction.
That is why markets often move before the official story changes. During World War II, for example, the U.S. stock market bottomed in the spring of 1942, long before the war ended in 1945. The market began turning before the outcome was obvious to most people. Investors were trying to price the change in probability.
That is what markets do.
They absorb information, emotion, incentives, fear, greed, uncertainty, and specialized knowledge, then turn all of it into a price.
Prediction markets make that idea more explicit.
Instead of only asking, "What do people think?"
They ask, "What probability is the market assigning?"
That distinction may matter across entire industries. Insurance is one obvious example. Insurance is basically the business of underwriting risk. What is the probability of a hurricane, a fire, a death, a lawsuit, a medical event, a default, or a catastrophic loss?
If prediction markets become deeper and more liquid, they may become useful signals for risk pricing, media, finance, politics, healthcare, and almost any industry where people need to estimate the probability of future events.
Predictor is launching Monday, and I expect you may start seeing it around.
We'll follow the company going forward, and I'll continue writing about prediction markets more broadly.
As always, this is not investment advice and not a recommendation to trade or invest in anything.
It is simply a company and a category worth watching.
Until next time,
Remember, ownership changes everything.
– Eric
Disclaimer: This communication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Any investment opportunity would be made, if at all, only through the applicable offering documents and subject to applicable investor qualification requirements. Investing in private companies involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of your entire investment.